In this packed democrat field of candidates it is easy to overlook people. This is dangerous because Trump and Obama were both underdogs to win their parties’ nomination at this stage in their races. Jeb Bush had a huge lead over Donald Trump, and Hilary Clinton was leading Barack Obama. Even so, both Trump and Clinton ended up running away with the nomination.
At this stage in the 2020 election there are realistically 3 candidates who will win the nomination, with a couple of long shots.
Biden is seen as the Jeb Bush of the race. He is the established political veteran who started out with a big lead. Now, as July is progressing he is slipping in the polls. Joe Biden’s biggest strength could be the corruption of the Democratic National Committee. They already showed in 2016 that they are willing to rig the primary. Joe Biden is a candidate the DNC could favor. He is the only candidate with a wide lead over Trump in a hypothetical match-up, and is well connected within the democratic establishment.
Harris is surging in the polls after her strong debate performance. Harris checks a lot of the boxes of what makes a strong candidate. She is a minority, she is young (compared to the other candidates), and is a woman. The primary polls are promising for her, and if she keeps up the strong debate performances, then she could easily win the nomination.
Pocahontas is also rising in the polls. The far left candidate is stealing a lot of Bernie Sanders’ shine by offering free everything. Her strategy to bribe people into voting for her is bold, but is clearly working. Warren, Harris, and Biden are all competing for the top spot in the polls. Warren’s biggest problem is that she has droves of things Trump would love to attack her for.
Work To Do
After being on the wrong side of the DNC corruption in 2016, Bernie is trying again. Everyone knows him, but he cannot seem to gain ground in the polls. Bernie’s problem is that there are other extreme left candidates running who are “out libbing” him. He will likely remain in decent standing in the polls, but will never be able to get over the hump.
Mayor Pete has a bright future within the democratic party, but his time hasn’t quite come yet. He was deployed to Afghanistan while mayor, is likable, comes off as intelligent, and is a far leftist. Buttigieg will run again and will be much more of a contender when he does
The democratic primary is essentially a three person race with twenty people running. Biden, Warren, and Harris are the likely winners, but anything could happen. We’ve certainly seen crazier things than someone who is low in the polls surge and win the nomination. The Iowa caucus is about half a year away and things will likely change by then.