Biden Getting To 15% In California
California has 415 delegates at stake tonight. Bernie Sanders is going to win the state, but by how much is what matters. The magic number for the other candidates is 15%.
A candidate has to receive at least 15% of the vote in order to get any delegates. If Joe Biden doesn’t get to 15%, then he will be awarded 0 statewide delegates.
From there, 144 of the statewide delegates are awarded based on the overall state election results. So if Biden doesn’t get to 15%, then Sanders gets all 144 of those delegates.
The other 271 delegates are awarded based on the results of congressional districts. A candidate has to receive 15% in the congressional district to receive any delegates. They would have also had to have gotten 15% overall in the state. So if Biden got over 15% in the state as a whole, but only 14% in a congressional district, he would get 0 delegates from that individual district.
While confusing, the main thing to look for is whether or not Biden will get to 15% in the statewide election. He has received a boost after the South Carolina primary and is in a good position to meet this threshold. The polls show Bernie at 35% and Biden at 23%.
The Impact Buttigieg and Klobuchar Had
Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar both abruptly ended their campaigns after the South Carolina Primaries. Both also went on to endorse Joe Biden.
This is a move to try to get their supporters behind Biden to block Sanders from securing the nomination. It will provide Biden with a minor boost, but not as significant of an impact as the media is portraying.
Neither Buttigieg or Klobuchar were polling very strong in any upcoming states. They were both second-tier candidates without much momentum. The support they did have will now be split among the remaining candidates.
Bloomberg Dropping Out
Tonight is Bloomberg’s debut. It could also be his exit.
After sitting out the first round of primaries, he has focused his attention on Super Tuesday. If he doesn’t come close to winning a single state, then he will likely drop out.
He has spent over $500 million so far in his campaign and is unlikely to win a state. His demise can be credited to his horrendous debate performance and lack of charisma.
If he does drop out, then it will provide a boost to the Biden campaign. Bloomberg has been running as a moderate, and his supporters will likely choose Biden of Sanders. Bloomberg and Biden also have a past relationship, so he would likely endorse Biden if he dropped out.
Warren Dropping Out
Whether or not Warren drops out could come down to her own state of Massachusetts. If she loses every state, including her own, then there is no reason she should still be in the race.
She is currently neck and neck with Sanders in Massachusetts. If she were to drop out then her supporters would be more willing to go to Sanders than any other candidate left. Warren is much farther left than any candidate besides Sanders.
Although she has no chance to win, she does have significant support behind her. It will have a major impact on the race if she does drop out. Biden and Sanders will both try hard to win over her supporters.